Pic Post
Bringing Yourself Back Up
Not so long ago I wrote about mentally dealing with deployments. I happened to be in a good mood then so it was a pretty up beat post. Right now I am kind of down. No particularly valid reason. I had to deal with a lot of those little things we put off because they are irritating to get done. I didn’t have my usual appetite and probably consumed 2/3rds of my normal intake. It is test week for my workout routine and I may have pushed myself a bit hard yesterday so I am sort. Also for no particular reason I have been tired since the afternoon though I slept fine last night. I think what’s going on is that I let myself think about leave (which is getting closer but still a long way off,) and redeployment. Thinking about good things made me bummed out to be here. It all kind of combined into blah.
In survival situations people will definitely have to deal with emotions, particularly if there is significant loss of property or lives or some sort of great suffering. Someone who is 55 and watching their hard earned 401k sink like the Titanic or a person who is involved in a violent situation have different, but very heavy stuff to deal with. Now that we have covered that life is hard and sometimes I am a whiny emo kid let us move onto how to deal with it.
In the short term I am a big fan of distractions or treats. A dvd and a snack will go a long way toward boosting your mood. A cold beer or two might help you relax also but be careful with that one. The line between a couple before dinner and a case alone in the basement is thin and grey.
In the midterm avoiding things that bum you out to the maximum extent possible is good. Getting some good endorphins going by working out is another solid one also. I also think finding things to look forward to can help considerably. Most situations do come to an end and looking at the end of whatever is bothering you will typically help. Beyond that the good old, fake it till you make it saying applies.
On a broader scale try to build a life that makes you as happy as possible. Eliminate toxic people, relationships and situations when you can. Don’t put yourself in a situation where money problems are likely by living beyond your means or borrowing excessively. Our outlooks on life help considerably here. I truly do believe that over the long run we do choose to be happy or unhappy.
Now please excuse me, I am going to have some snacks and watch the Soprano’s.
I Can Haz Economic Recovery
I heard on the news today that our economic recovery is at risk. I wondered what that guy was smoking and if it showed up on drug tests. Unemployment is around 10%, real inflation (I don’t know about you but I can’t magically factor out food, housing and energy) is nipping away at purchasing power, home prices are down and the markets are painfully in the hole.
Granted the economy is a complicated thing so it is best judged by a broad variety of indicators. To be blunt I would say that finding any indicator that is positive would be difficult and even then it would be an exception proves the rule sort of situation.
In normal people’s lives unemployment, followed by inflation (maybe inflation would go after home prices as home prices trickle into a lot of things but I went inflation first because most people are not buying or selling a home at any given time), followed by home prices and then the market are probably the indicators that matter the most.
Come to think of it the only really positive thing I have heard anybody say about our economy in some time is that it is probably a buying opportunity for real estate and stocks.
The phrase “don’t piss down my back and tell me it is raining” comes to mind.
US Debt Downgraded
This morning I went in to work half asleep as usual. I am able to get moving quicker than most folks but am still not quite myself until I’ve been up for a half hour and or had a cup of coffee. Someone said in passing “US Debt was downgraded” and it caught my attention enough to walk over and ask if he was serious. He was and gave me the one sentence summary of it then moved on to something else. This part was kind of interesting.
Remember the scene in Snatch (if you haven’t seen it you really should) where the two black guys who run the pawn shop and their friend walk into the office and find Brick Top (an old crazy english gangster with funny glasses) sitting on the couch? Well it got the two guys attention because there was an old, odd looking man sitting on the couch in their supposedly locked office. The third knew who Brick Top was and what his presence there meant, that it was very bad. This was kind of like that. Certainly it will get everybodies attention, if just for a second, but only some who keep track of these sort of things know how really bad it is.
For a lot of reasons I have been somewhat complacent recently but this definitely changed that. While not a suprise parse I didn’t think anything like this would happen so soon. It definitely made me take stock of things.
On the bright side I am really happy Wifey and Walker are at home with family. It would be nice if I was around, both for psychological and functional (healthy young men with military training are useful) reasons, they are in the best possible place they could be. This makes me very glad we made that choice.
I had been (maybe mistakenly) waiting for PM’s to take a hard dip before buying again. That plan is out the window. I made a big, for us, purchase and feel better knowing that a little bit more of our buying power is now not dollar denominated. Also I am looking at filling a few gaps that have been present for awhile. I HAD planned to just stash cash and do a good round of buying when I get back but that plan is now out the window. Also I have a few more ideas and need to do some more thinking and talk with the Wife about them.
Get your house in order while it is still possible and reasonably affordable. I don’t mean to tell you that the world is ending and you should put every dime into beans and bullets or anything like that. However if there is something you have been meaning to do, or a purchase you have been meaning to make and can reasonably afford them it is time to do it. Could be food, training, PM’s, guns, ammo, whatever. There may well be some bad stuff coming so if you want something and can (please don’t use credit or spend irresponsibly) afford it them it’s time to get it.
If our nation does not get it’s economic house in order sooner instead of later we may have some very ugly times ahead.
Unconventional Family Housing
Different cultures and periods have dictated cultural norms that vary widely in terms of who lives with each other, when and for how long. For the sake of this discussion I am going to consider conventional housing being one or two adults that are married or otherwise together living with the minor (or close to minor) children of that couple. The other norm is adults that are friends or acquaintances (or just random’s) living together to share expenses.
There have always been some exceptions to this relative cultural norm of contemporary post WWII America. In particular many immigrant groups and Hispanics have tended to stay together much longer and adult children living with parents. Three generation households are common if not the norm for these groups. Also among Americans young ‘adult’ children maybe living with their parents for awhile and older adults who need some assistance living with family have been consistent themes. The latter for economic subsidization and the former for help with everyday stuff. Toss in random fairly short term life circumstances like job losses, breakups/divorce, relocation, leaving the military, etc and you have captured most of the reasons people have traditionally chosen to reside with family. Sort of like there have always been a certain percentage of home foreclosures there have always been some unconventional family housing. Also like home foreclosures unconventional family housing is (I don’t have statistics but I sure think) on the rise.
The Great Recession is proving to be particularly hard on young adults. Even the best laid plans for getting meaningful skills on the non college path takes time and generally starts with low wages. These days kids just starting out are often the first to get fired AND they are far less likely than in the past to get the kinds of jobs that allow for upward movement. You would have to be blind to not see a lot of young adults graduating from college and moving home because they can’t find a professional job; or even a job that will pay rent and let them live independently.
These coupled with an increase in the overall rate of unemployment have put unconventional family housing on the rise, at least in my circle of friends and family. Some observations from successful and rocky situations are why I am writing this today.
Here are some considerations for unconventional family housing. It is important to remember that much more than a generic roommate situation there are social factors in play and it is a different dynamic. I think the biggest and most important thing is coming up with a detailed and specific written agreement prior to beginning living together or immediately after moving in. I just don’t think this can be overstated as it will, if well thought out, prevent so many issues. Obviously in a case where one person is subsidizing the other (free or reduced rent, etc) the one doing the paying has a lot more say. I will refer to the two parties as supporting and benefiting for convenience. There are many different variables and factors in play and it matters less what is agreed upon than that there is an agreement. Here are some considerations.
-Do you even want to live with family? I’ve known family who have instead helped someone out financially. Also I know folks who have couch surfed or been the 5th guy in a 3 bedroom paying $50 a month to sleep on the floor (guy 4 had the couch). My advice is that if it is going to really be an uncomfortable situation to avoid it if at all possible.
– For approximately how long do you plan for it to last? Somebody staying for a couple weeks or a month until whatever happens is very different than a plan that could last months or years. This is important because how long it is anticipated to last really affects the amount of planning that should be done. On the short end a two minute conversation can work and on the long end some forethought and a series of detailed discussions could be wise. (More on this later.)
-Under what scenario are you willing to enter into this sort of arrangement? Are you willing to help the supporting party while they are in school or doing an apprenticeship or internship? Are you willing to support them until they earn enough to support their self? What about if they make an OK living but choose to spend their money on other things? What if they are between jobs? What if they are are in a low paying dead end job? What if they are waffling, sleeping late and partying a lot. I would strongly suggest thinking about this and talking about it with your partner BEFORE it comes up because odds are it will come up. My only advice on this is don’t be afraid to lay down ground rules. If you are OK with someone living with you while they are in school, trying to find a job, saving for a down payment on a home or whatever then say so.
-Social arrangements are the next big sticking point. This is probably the most noticeable difference between living with family and a generic roomie arrangement. Broadly speaking it would benefit the supporting party to realize that everyone involved is an adult and it would be good for the benefiting party to remember they don’t just have a roomie. This is particularly important if someone is single and actively dating. While a random person in a bathrobe drinking coffee in the kitchen when a family member is over makes for a great scene in a sitcom it would not be so funny in real life. Well it might be funny in someone elses life but not your life. If house guests are cool or not is a very personal discussion but you should have it early instead of late.
Also family generally want to have a lot more vision on each others whereabouts than roommates do. When I used to have roommates I worried about what it would seem like if something happened to them. They could be gone for a week or two and unless bills were due or something I wouldn’t call them. I had a vision of a cop asking where they were and me being like “I think I saw him last Tuesday” and it not going well. At the various times I have been home as an adult; what we have done is that if we are going to be gone overnight we let the other person know where we will be. Just a phone call saying “I’m staying at Bob/Tom/Sally’s place” was sufficient though I did try to call before 9pm. If the folks went somewhere they told me where also. Coming up with a workable plan for social arrangements isn’t hard provided that you show some forethought and have an honest if slightly unpleasant conversation before things start coming up.
-Financial and household arrangements are next on the list. Just figure out who is going to pay for what. For the supporting party be advised that there will inevitably be some cost, if just utilities and a bit of food and not to get into this anything you can’t afford comfortably. My observation is that in this area it isn’t so much big picture stuff but little things that create problems. We aren’t talking about hundreds of dollars in rent so much as who ate the last pepperidge farm chocolate chunk cookie and didn’t buy more. The supporting party generally knows that the benefiting party needs help and they are willing to provide it. Also I think that if you have figured things out to the point where everyone knows who is supposed to replace the chocolate chunk cookies the big things like rent and utilities have long been covered.
I have two more thoughts on finances. First is if the supporting party has any sort of financial expectations for the supporting party they should make then clear. It might be paying off debt or saving to be independent, etc just lay it out in advance. The second thought is that (I’m not a lawyer so this is not legal advice and consider yourself disclaimed.) in a lot of places paying rent entitles a person legally to certain rights a house guest does not have. If things get bad that could turn out to be a real pain. Maybe there is a way they could help out with groceries or something and still be a house guest. If that is a concern (or you are looking at a real long term situation) then it might be worth talking to a lawyer.
In terms of household arrangements. Figure out space and if possible clear up some storage for stuff that exceeds said space. Spell out very clearly (not just ‘help around the house’) what you would like the benefiting party to do towards the total household workload.
– Lastly I think it is worth being clear on what circumstances and or time frame is going to bring an end to the cohabitation. This sort of ties in with the scenario under which the supporting party is willing to enter into this sort of thing. For example you might be cool with a full time student but aren’t so cool with a student taking a class or two at a time with no real direction. At some point (and many articles have been written by people experiencing this) helping can definitely become enabling. Case in point I recently saw a guy I know who graduated with a BA two years ago and has been at home unemployed since. We all know a kid who graduated high school and just sort of hung out partying, sleeping a lot and playing video games until eventually the rents lay down the law. To risk being redundant it doesn’t matter so much what the conditions here are but they should be well thought out, specific enough to be meaningful and understood by all parties involved.
Beyond the Great Recession I see this sort of unconventional family housing becoming more and more common. The numbers and demographics make it an easy call. Kids today on the non college option have serious problems. They used to get a low paying job then as they learn and gain some skills wages improve over time. To be blunt this model is not working so effectively any more. It takes longer for most to move to a wage where they can live independently and some aren’t moving there at all. When GM paid anybody the equivalent of $17.50 an hour and grocery stores paid living wages it was easy to get a job then an apartment and pretty quickly be middle class. Now the kinds of jobs many of these kids get make $9 with no benefits and little room for upward movement. Those who get into union, trade and tech jobs will likely fare the best.
Don’t worry the college option (this reminds me of the game Life) isn’t much better. When many folks take a bump down the ladder and there is high unemployment then hiring a person with a few years experience, or someone you had to let go when things were rough, over a kid just out of college is a no brainer. This plus student debt hitting record levels (somewhere over 20k on averagea terrible time to be young.
Don’t worry the baby boomers some issues also. Many of the boomers are in serious trouble when it comes to retirement because they haven’t saved a darn thing or in any case nowhere near enough. They saved like they have a cushy defined benefits retirement plan and social security is totally secure. As you may note they generally do not have a defined benefits retirement plan and getting social security (with decent purchasing power) is a long bet. To make matters worse instead of buying a modest home, paying it off and staying there like the Greatest Generation did they traded (while moving some distance or in the same area) their homes up several times and often tapped any equity which had been somehow accidentally created. The amount of people who are looking at retirement who do not have their primary residence paid off surprises me. On a whole lot of these retirements the math just doesn’t work. In the economy we have now with older workers being expensive to employ, expensive to insure and absent from work more often they are likely to get laid off sooner instead of later. In any case it would be optimistic to assume they will be able to have full employment for as long as they want. Also along the surprising theme some boomers seem to be in la la land in terms of how long their money will last. They must be figuring on 20% annual growth in their money or something. These folks think they will be able to at least maintain their lifestyle forever when in reality they might be able to live a very basic subsistence existence.
Of course not all 20 and 30 somethings are boomeranging back home and plenty of 55-65 year olds did plan adequately for retirement. My point is that between those two groups the amount of people in a situation where unconventional family housing is necessary or desirable is going to dramatically rise. Best of all this scenario is if the economy keeps going more or less without significant changes. If the great recession gets worse and turns into the late 70’s- early 80’s or America’s lost decade or even worse then all bets are off.
Along those same lines a TEOTWAWKI or significant security change could lead to a non economic motivation for this sort of thing. Even if you make a fine living or saved well for retirement it is pretty darn hard for a couple or a normal family with a couple teenagers to have decent 24/7 security; let alone have decent security and get anything done. Extended families and or friends would be well advised to gather at the best location they have available. I think it is worth putting some planning and forethought into this unconventional housing situation also. This however is a whole other series of posts for another day.
Anyway I have been writing this off and on all day and it is way longer than my average post so I am not going to bother to carefully read it twice for small grammar and convention issues. Anyway I hope you enjoy it and maybe even get something out of it.
Goodnight and good luck
Why Do People Fail To Adapt?
1. Not seeing what is happening. Sometimes folks just aren’t informed on what is going on. Hard to make logical conclusions and adapt to them if you don’t have the information.
2. Refusal to accept the new reality. Folks will just stick their heads in the sand and hope the problem goes away. Often this happens with a family who simply can’t afford to maintain their current lifestyle. They will try to borrow and juggle bills and try to hold onto the greased string as long as they possibly can. Like tearing off a band aid going slower just makes it worse. Better to have a couple really rough months than a couple pretty rough years.
Also there are those starving farmers in Africa. Ya know the ones you always see on the aid commercials. The ones who keep planting pathetic little gardens on their 1/2 of an acre farm in the Sudan where 9/10 years there is a drought that kills all the crops.
3. They limit their options. They refuse to try the kind of food that is available and starve instead. They refuse to move to find work. They hope old jobs will come back instead of focusing on retraining and finding new employment.
4. They give up. Adapting, at least in the context we are talking about, is usually unpleasant. Like any other human situation there is a huge psychological factor. When something bad happens I am not saying you shouldn’t be sad. Eat a carton of ice cream, or drink a half bottle of booze or whatever it is you do. Go to sleep, wake up and get the heck on with your life. It will eventually get better.
Oh the News
I think it is amazing how the MSM just keeps trying to talk about how we are in a recovery. Yeah we are in a jobless recovery where the stock market is pretty flat, and housing is still in the dumpster. That would be sorta like saying you were sober last night even though the facts are that you drank a case of beer, got kicked out of the club, vomited on the side of the road on the way home and passed out. It doesn’t matter what you call it, it matters what the actual facts are.
I don’t know where things are going. I suspect that significant joblessness will be an issue for some time. With so many people unemployed it is easy to replace workers so security will be lacking for many people. I don’t know where the bottom of the housing market is but until the foreclosure mess is over and banks get all the foreclosed houses off their books things won’t be in an honest place. Banks will try to hold onto these homes until prices come back but there are just too many of them for that to work.
From roughly 2008 at least partly into 2009 was really circle the wagons time. Things are better now but not necessarily good. Even if almost 1 in 10 is out of work most of us are still employed and a lot of the uncertainly has gone away. You can probably let up a little bit but I wouldn’t go crazy. If you can afford it then by all means go out for a nice dinner or take a weekend vacation to the beach. However I would still hold off on getting your dream boat or touring Europe for a year. For the purposes of short and mid term planning right now I would sacrifice some return in order to have liquidity. A CD that earns an extra tenth of a percentage point but locks your money in for two years is not something I would go for right now.
It might be a great opportunity to get some great deals on stocks. If you have the appetite for risk and are looking at the long term. Personally I meet those characteristics and am buying. Wheat and tube socks do not benefit from compound inflation while investments do.
My point is that the news isn’t everything. Especially the propaganda headlines. Look for stories with facts from places you trust. Look at what is going on in your community and with people you know.
What To Do?
I was talking with a friend recently. We were talking about preps and money and he said “I just don’t know what to do”. As I lay in bed waiting to fall asleep I thought about that. It has been in my head for a couple days now.
What to do? Well first I have to say that I do not have a crystal ball or anything. If I did we would have won several hundred million dollars in Powerball. Our time would be split between a little place near our families, our retreat and our awesome sail boat. However since I still have a job and no awesome sail boat this obviously isn’t the case. [I guess it is probably smart to have an explicit disclaimer. I am just a guy who writes a blog, not a financial adviser or an accountant or whatever. You’re an adult and you make your own decisions.]
What should you do to prepare for the future. Here are some thoughts in no particular order.
1. Make yourself as employable as possible. In more situations than not our current economy will be functioning in some form or another. You are going to work to get money to live. If/ when unemployment goes up even more less qualified people will find “crap jobs” as their only options.
2. Stay out of debt as much as possible. In particular avoid adjustable interest debt.
3. Diversify. I don’t know what is going to happen but I think it is going to be a wild ride. Compound interest working in your favor is good. Having some gold and silver is good. Real estate if done in the right way is good. Having a few things you could barter if need be is good.
4. Don’t get too attached to anything. If the area you are in goes down the tubes in terms of crime or the job market then consider moving somewhere else. Saying “but I live here” isn’t much conciliation when it is hard to get a job at McDonalds because unemployment is 25%. I have a distinct feeling that economics and or crime will make some regions of the US undesirable places to live. [I don’t think the odds are long that economics are going to continue to drive people out of the rust belt. However if I had to wager one trend I would say that people will start moving away from the Mexican border/ Southwest in the coming years.]
5. Going along with the last one. Do not be afraid to act decisively. If it is time to convert one currency to another or get the heck out of dodge a couple days (heck even a few hours) can be the difference between preserving your wealth or safety and being left broke or stuck in a bad place.
6. Save, Save, Save. I think the next decade is going to be a wild roll a coaster of a ride. Periods of income disruption and unemployment are going to become more common. Unemployment will go up (probably then back down then up again, etc).
7. I say this one last because it is pretty much survivalist bread and butter. Have the means to feed, protect and generally carry on as normal of a life as possible for a reasonable period of time (if not longer).
What are you going to do?
A Late Night Conversation and Random Thoughts Theiron
I couple days ago I ended up pulling an all niter. Had a bunch of work that needed to get done so I was working until about 1 o’clock. I had to wake up at 4 the following morning. Since I would have the opportunity to take a nap the next day I just stayed up. Ended up having an interesting conversation with the night shift folks.
Personally I am not so sure about the security and stability of China. Their ability to keep totalitarian rule going is something I doubt. Buying people off with letting them own property, make money and such works OK as long as the economy is good. However if it gets too good they have problems. Right now their system works to a large part because the rural poor from the inland area are forcibly held in place. Also sooner or later rich people will want the same sort of social and political freedom as they have for the economy.
While there is was some debate on how bad things could get in the US the picture is bleak. At best I see a rather painful decade coming up. When people eventually get back to work and businesses grow and borrow and invest we are going to see inflation. I just can’t see a way that when the massive amount of new money gets moving through the economy it will not decrease the value of currency. It might be catastrophic hyperinflation which could lead to war or a full on default. It could just be late 70’s to early 80’s style high inflation and interest rates. One fellow saw the Fed getting shut down and replaced with a true government currency. Avoiding adjustable rate interest debt like the plague and generally being financially fit is good advice. If you can afford it putting a few spare bucks into silver and gold isn’t a bad idea either.
We were generally not enthusiastic or optimistic about this new health care bill. That it started by being billed as stopping big, evil insurance companies from hurting people and ended with people being forced to buy health insurance from big, evil insurance companies is sad, ironic and not at all surprising. Personally I think we the people are getting taken for a ride but soon enough government may well stick it to insurance companies. In general our government likes to start a program (special education is a great example) and then gradually remove funding but still under threat of something bad, force the program to continue.
There was significant concern voiced by one fellow that since the government is now in the health care business they can and probably will stick their nose further into people lives. Even aside from trying to centrally manage (or at least shot call) 1/6th of our economy it is a great excuse to get all up into peoples business. Think of it like the Commerce Clause but for personal behavior. Since you doing X might arguably cost the government money via health care it is now taxed/ restricted/ banned could become a common summary of upcoming legislation and decree’s.
In some ways the recent problems with the Euro were surprising to us. Then again if you really stop and think they shouldn’t be. First of all the relatively recent times where the Euro has pwned the dollar have not been about the Euro’s getting stronger but about the dollar getting weaker. Secondly lets look at Europe. In general northern Europe and particularly Germany have solid economies though now and then their socialist programs (they are expensive) cause issues. Southern Europe is a big financial mess. They have relatively similar socialist programs as the rest of Europe but without the economies to support them if things go less than perfectly. Europe is an expensive place to do business and especially the kind of business that employs lots of people. Those whose industry can be anywhere often avoid Europe’s high wages and crazy powerful unions. The last couple years chaos has hurt them albeit slower and to a smaller degree than the US but I am not convinced these issues haven’t been building for awhile.
There was some talk of the world reserve currency shifting away from the dollar. Personally I think that baring a complete economic melt down of the US, that is unlikely. I think this because there isn’t any better option. The Euro certainly isn’t as solid as it seemed not too long ago and in terms of managing it the Europeans have too hard of a time getting anything agreed on. I don’t think anyone is stupid enough to go with the Chinese Yuan because of a lack of long term history and well, China is not the kind of government one would want to trust with something that big. The Japanese Yen is all over the place and their whole weird pseudo fascist system plus people still vividly remember their Lost Decade. The Pound Sterling is probably in some ways worse off than the Dollar. Russia is a totally unstable Gangsterocracy and heavily dependent on energy prices staying high. That whole “basket” idea seems unreliable and outright nutty. I have a hard time seeing enough nations being willing to buy into it. Then again it is so nutty and prone to manipulation that governments might love it. I see the dollar staying as the world reserve currency for the foreseeable future, if just because better options are not currently available.
Also, at least for relatively short periods of time coffee helps you stay awake.
Lastly I have been enjoying The Drudge Report as of late. If I have just a 15 minute coffee break to get the news a glance there and one at the BBC News front page gets me up to date.
Since it is late I am going to bed now.
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