Preps or Investing?
In some circles you can’t be a real survivalist unless you have cashed our every investment you have to buy a bunch of buckets full of wheat and extra pants. Clearly every dollar you have will just burn up in a hyperinflationary disaster so the only reasonable thing to do is to get it all out right now, fees be damned and turn it into good tangible’s like buckets full of wheat and lots of extra pants.
If you haven’t picked it up I am really not a fan of this strategy. There are so many reasons for this. First if you can’t see a reasonable (heck probably likely) chance that eventually you may get old and not be able to work consider the possibility that you are a fool. We could debate investment strategies (and will get there later) but fundamentally you need to be saving for your future. Buckets of wheat will not put gas in your car or pay property taxes in 40 years when you can’t work.
The thing about experts is that they tend to be a bit fixated on whatever they are an expert in. This makes sense as people don’t tend to get really good or attain significant status in areas they are ambivalent about. The amount of time a championship marathoner or powerlifter thinks is reasonable to spend exercising probably differs from most people. A guy who writes for Car and Driver probably puts more of his money into vehicles than most. An uuber gunnie might think a super custom pistol that costs 2k and a tricked out uuber AR that costs 3k and wears another 3k in accessories are totally reasonable. The point I am getting at is that as a sort of jack of all trades (vs just a gunnie or whatever) we need to look at the big picture. Looking at the big picture means we cannot always shoot the same guns as a guy who just does 3 gun tourneys or whatever. It should be pretty obvious that letting the guy from Car and Driver choose your carry piece is about as smart as letting some preparedness guru choose your investing strategy or the champion marathoner pick your next family vehicle.
Maybe more to the point a definite this or that mentality comes up here which I think is ridiculous. There are almost infinite ways you could spend your money so it certainly does not just come down to preps or investing. It is better to look at the big picture. You could invest $500 a month or have a boat with a payment. You could spend $300 a month on preps or have the big cable package and go out to eat a few times a month. The options are endless which is why this whole argument is kind of foolish to me.
Note that I am talking about taking money that was allocated toward longterm savings (in whatever form) and putting it into food storage or whatever kind of survivalist stuff. Folks who decide to go all contrarian/ hard money are a different sort of discussion. They may be right or wrong but this makes much more sense as they are still saving for the future but in a different way. I know some folks who are seriously contrarian in their investment plans. They keep liquid savings in PM’s and put the rest of their money into various things like specialized equipment for businesses or real estate or small businesses that earn money. It is worth noting that lots of “contrarian’s” mess up on the part where the point of getting something is that it makes you money. A NIB .44 magnum or gold coin tucked away in a safe does not get you interest or pay a profit. A lot that you rent out to somebody or a share of a local business can make a profit.
However tempting it is to raid your investments to get a jump start on preps I think it is dangerously short sighted. The world MAY end but assuming you do not take an untimely dirt nap you WILL get old. I cringe every time some survivalist blogger/ author/ expert recommends this approach.Taking a couple grand from your liquid savings to buy some basic stuff is not a terrible idea but cashing everything you have saved in your entire life out to buy some stuff you may never need is just not a smart thing to do. A far preferable alternative option is to leave your retirement money alone, cut some stuff you don’t need anyway from your budget/lifestyle and use that money towards your preparedness goals. It isn’t as fast or easy but you end up in a much better place. Personally I look at the two as entirely different streams of money for different purposes. My retirement account is for if things go just fine and our preps and stores are for if they don’t.
Anyway those are my thoughts on that. I am interested in hearing yours.
Crazy Market and Appetite for Risk
I bought a little bit of silver about a week back. I was happy that spot was down a buck, since then spot is down another 9 dollars. I sure bet right on that one. It is probably a nice “dip” if you didn’t blow your wad a week ago like I did. Stocks are down significantly as well. I think it is pretty apparent that Europe is nowhere near done with its fiscal troubles and a Greek default is getting more and more likely.
I don’t know what will happen but we are probably in for a wild ride.
Interestingly I bought stocks awhile back. I do not regret that decision. On the long timeline I am looking at stocks are probably (more so in certain areas) a bargain. However in the short run I do not have a clue what is going to happen. Interestingly a co worker recently bought a bunch of stock on credit in the last couple of days. He figured they will bounce back and he will make some easy money. I wish the guy the best.
That got me to thinking about appetite for risk. There is of course a definite relationship between risk and reward or more accurately put potential for rewards. Also leverage (which we normal people call debt) lets you theoretically raise profits and when it works well it works very well indeed. However when it works badly things come crashing down like a house of cards. Instead of your plan going to heck, your plan goes to heck and now you have to service this debt.
I hesitate to say what is right or wrong for anybody. It depends almost entirely on what you are comfortable with. I’ve heard it said that if something will leave you up worrying at night you should not put money into it and that makes sense. There is definitely a human component there. I have some appetite for risk as I invest in stocks and relatively more risky areas like energy and in developing markets. However I do it with cash, cash that while it would not be ideal I can afford to lose. Worst case if I take a big hit (especially now while we are relatively young) we call it an expensive lesson and move on. Personally for me it is about a specific pool of money for a specific thing. Also since we have some of our bases covered by putting some money away for emergencies and not having debt we have more options and can afford to put money toward something with an element of risk. The money we need to feed ourselves if my income is disrupted is not sitting in some stock that might be wildly down (or up) at any given time.
Times and Money
Houses and Housing
I have been thinking a lot about the nature of this beast. I think sustainability and affordability are sure interesting. Something occured to me recently. We think about housing almost all wrong. The concept of a home as an investment is kind of a misnomer. I think houses (and to a certain degree all realestate) as a physical brick, mortar and wood structure are a good investment. Of course they aren’t going to go up 30% a year like they did in the run up to the housing bubble. However assuming you make reasonable choices house values will go up. Also in the meantime they can product income for you. Sort of like a stock that pays dividends you will do OK even when the market is flat. Where I think people go so wrong is that they lump housing in with the brick and mortar structures themselves. Housing is definitely a liability. Housing is a liability because you need, in some form or another, a place to live. To me the concept of purchasing some dirt and a structure isn’t about investing it is about a place to lay your head and keep your stuff. Paying off that place is about reducing your liabilities.
Affordability is so important and is something we seem as a culture to have lost. The smart money folks say things like a payment not more than one third of your income. I have also heard your high total amount shouldn’t be more than 3 times your total annual income. Our blog friend’s advice to ignore the loan people and get what you know YOU CAN AFFORD is sound. Personally I think being pessimistic is the key. Don’t think about the good months where you get some overtime or the great months where you get a big bonus but the bad months when you have a few down days and some unexpected expenses. Assuming you take the life of a loan to pay it off you are looking at between 15 and 30 years. While your income may grow and or inflation will make the true value of the monthloy cost lower a lot of bad things can and will happen in that amount of time.
Our Grandparents typically bought a home and stayed in it. Sometimes they got a really small starter home and upgraded after a kid or three to a place with more bedrooms. However the difference is that THEY STAYED THERE. Also though a house might have 4 or 5 bedrooms it wasn’t typically a gazillion square feet. A house payment which might have been a little tight when the kids are young and the parents are in their early 30’s (they got married younger) was comfortable 10 years later after Dad went from working on the line to being a supervisor or bring a teacher to a principle or whatever. Their payments got more comfortable because their incomes grew and there was some inflation. Conversely today people upgrade their house every time they get a raise and take out home equity loans to boot.
I think the way to look at housing and homes both as an investment and a place to live needs to be adjusted. The housing boom is over and while prices may rise they aren’t going to be the idiot proof investment they have been for a decade or so. Think more about securing your families ability to well, not be homeless, than making a profit.
Write a post on your site/blog/forum elsewhere online about how you use ammo cans. Here is a shell you can use if you want.
” Lucky Gunner partnered with TSLRF to put together a contest. The goal is to come up with the most creative way to use ammo cans. I use ammo cans to _____________________. The prize is a half case of free ammo! See the full details here.”
If you paste that shell into your blog or website or favorite forum then add in what you use ammo cans for and you will be good it go. You do not need to use the above shell. I just wrote the shell out to make it as easy as possible for you to enter. For a qualifying post you just need to be sure you link to ammo cans and TSLRF in your post!
b. Copy the link to your post and add it to the comments section on this post. You can also email a link to your entry to me. This enters you into the contest.
c. The contest will run until 14 November. After the contest has closed, I’ll do another post w/all the qualifying entries. Our readers will get to vote on which post was the best (either entertaining or most informative) via a survey. Folks who enter can tell their readers/ friends and family about the survey and they can vote in favor of your entry – so be sure and spread the word!
d. Based on the poll results, the winner gets their choice of 500 rounds of ammo from Lucky Gunner. See full details here.
New Rules For Your Money And Debt
I stumbled onto an article today and when I went to post the thing I saw it was already up here. It brought on some thoughts. I think these coming years may not significantly reward good behavior (saving, etc) but will absolutely punish bad behavior. As Mayberry put it when you borrow money you are gambling that you will be able to pay it back. In bad times like this income disruptions are more common than normal. That means debt is a really bad gamble. It will seriously punish folks whose obligated expenses are too high. I wrote about this over at Keep It Simple Survival. Here is what I said One thing I’ve seen with different folks I know is that if an individual or family hits a bump in the road (job loss, etc) the ones with the fewest obligations fare best. They have the maximum ability to adjust their lifestyle to living with their new (if just temporary) reality. They have a few lean months then when a job is replaced are quickly back to normal.
A family with modest housing costs (rent or mortgage) and the usual food, fuel, etc but no debts can circle the wagons and live real cheap. However a family with big housing costs, two car payments, personal loans, a home depot credit card, a visa, etc can’t. These folks usually get some stuff repossessed and have their credit trashed, possibly even losing their home. While their income is down they often get so far behind it is difficult to get caught back when they do replace the income.
It isn’t popular or flashy but living well below your means should be the rule of these times. Lets say you make 40k and can live decently on 25k. That gives your family 15k to save, invest and prep with when things are good. It also means that if things get rough you can find a job earning a lot less and still make it, if just for awhile.
Medical Insurance and the Fundamentals
Wifey and I were talking last night about our worries, concerns and all that stuff about what is going on with Walker. One thing that occurred to me is that we aren’t worried about paying the bill. That is because we aren’t going to have a bill because we have good insurance. Not so long ago I was laid up myself with the pneumonia and it could have been a real problem for us.
We have good insurance through my job and it is one of the real benefits. Some jobs offer insurance and others don’t. I do suggest you consider that as a piece of the overall compensation for a job. Sometimes particularly when you look at the military the numbers are a bit deceiving.
I am not saying everyone should have X or Y type of medical insurance or even needs necessarily medical insurance at all. Certainly I don’t think people should be forced to purchase coverage any more than they should be forced to floss or eat vegetables or save or exercise even though they are smart choices. However I am saying that if you can possibly afford it you are foolish not to have a serious plan for dealing with the costs of medical issues which may come up. Particularly if you are active or your family has a woman of child bearing age it is foolish not to plan for this scenario. A lot of folks talk about all of this self healing herbal stuff. I think that is great but matter of fact it doesn’t replace being able to get legitimate medical care for serious illnesses and injuries. When I was laid up with pneumonia all the herbal tea and st johns wort in the world wouldn’t do what IV antibiotics did. A nice salve of naturally occurring elements will not replace an x ray and a cast in healing a broken arm.
Medical bills are, if memory serves me correctly, the biggest leading cause of bankruptcy. To spin in in a way that may seem important to the beans and bullets crowd it is really hard to carry around all your beans and bullets in the car after you go broke trying to pay medical bills and end up homeless.
I recall an analogy used by some smart financial type. He described priorities like building a house. The foundation was insurance and your emergency fund. The main floor is retirement planning, paying off your home and investing. The roof was stuff like college funds for kids, charitable donations, etc. The point is that if you try to skip steps you do not have the proper foundation (pun intended) and at the slightest tremor or storm the whole thing will fall down. You could weave preps in there at every level. Maybe the basement would be a real basic 2-4 weeks of food, gun with some ammo, water filter, etc. Real basic but good enough for a power outage or hurricane. The main floor might be a lot more food, heating and lighting plans, alternate shelter plans, a couple more guns with a good amount of ammo, clothing, etc. The roof might be precious metals, barter items and even the coveted off grid retreat complete with alternate power plans.
Survivalists far too often focus on statistically unlikely events instead of realistically and likely ones. For example this year and the one before, and the one before that we have not tapped into our food storage for anything but getting something we forgot at the store for a recipe. We haven’t used our medical supplies for anything but normal occurrences nor the rifles for anything but fun at the range. Our cases of ammo have not been opened and deployed in anger. We have however over the course of the last couple years made a few trips to the hospital. So which is more important? Personally I would say medical coverage though it is simplistic to say the two are mutually exclusive. The point isn’t to say you need this or that but instead to talk realistically about how to face life’s little challenges. Taking care of the basics like medical coverage and emergency savings before most other stuff just makes good sense.
Thoughts?
What Did You Do To Prepare This Week?
The biggest thing was that I ordered an ACOG from Idaho Preps. Been planning and saving to purchase an optic for some time. Hadn’t thought I would be able to afford what I wanted but the good folks at Idaho Preps reached out to me and were able to make it work. Really happy that at the end of the day I was able to get one.
I also opened up a ROTH IRA. We had been saving for awhile and this week we signed up for an account and all that stuff. Pretty psyched about the whole thing. Made a few bucks so far which is just cool.
Picked up a few odds and ends of canned and staple stuff at the store. Stocking up a little bit but probably for the most part just rotating what we already have. Sometimes the stores on post have weird super cheap sales for no real reason. I guess they get too much of something or their stocks are getting old or whatever and so they sell it for half price. This week they have Natural Light Beer for $3.25 a twelve pack which is half the normal price. I got 4 of them to stash away as a beer reserve.
Been looking at ammo as my inventory of 9mm isn’t quite up to my own standards. A case of Federal hollow points is pretty darn tempting and would put me in a good place. I’ve got to save a few more bucks before I can seriously consider that purchase. Really can’t complain because I just ordered a sweet rifle scope.
A very solid week for me. What did you do to prepare?
question of the day
I have noticed recently that I talk about money, finances, investing and such on here a lot more than I used to. Maybe because our finances are starting to reach a point where we actually have a bit of money but anyway. Does this topic interest you guys? Or is it just something that you skim past to get to the other posts you actually might like.
I can think of 3 potential options:
1) Basically no change at all from the current plan.You like the talk about money, finances, budgeting and such and want me to keep things the same as they are now.
2. Don’t totally get rid of it but tone it down some. I could restrict those conversations to (lets say) not more than once a week.This way it would still be around but wouldn’t hog the whole show.
3. Scrap it entirely. You think I should take the whole topic elsewhere. Maybe just shelve it, maybe another venue or whatever so long as I get it off TSLRF.
It goes without saying that I can do whatever I want but I do seriously want your input. I don’t try to please everybody all the time as it just wouldn’t work. However there is no point in me going to the trouble to write a whole subject of posts you folks don’t enjoy. If this isn’t a topic that in some way is resonating with you folks I can either just save the energy or try to find an audience it would resonate with.
Anyway please do let me know what you think.