Category Archives: middle east

What If?

I started reading a book on the Israeli- Palestinian conflict and it started something like this. “The saddest situations occur when both sides have a legitimate claim to being the good guys.” Truly the situation that has occured and been perpetuated by various power players is a sad one for both sides.
What if we stopped giving the Israeli’s, Egyptians, Palestinians and pretty much every other nation in that hotbed money and weapons? Aside from buying influence does making sure both sides are better armed really serve to help create a lasting peace? If you come outside to your tween boys fighting in the back yard do you give them each a stout stick? If your buddies get a bit rowdy at the bar do you give one a whiskey bottle and the other a knife? I don’t think so.

Are we really helping Israel or are we enabling them to continue a dysfunctional conflict and not seriously search for a realistic solution? If we really care about the right of oppressed people to have an independent nation to call a homeland what about the Kurds or the Pastun’s or the Tibetans?

Maybe one could argue that it is good for Israel that we back them with weapons, money and the implicit threat of force. However more to the point is it a good thing for America? Are we serving our independent needs and goals with these actions?

Even asking these questions could get me labeled an anti semite. That might concern me more than any position folks could take on the issue. Whipping out an “ist” every time you get questioned is the adult sociapolitical equivalent of a little  kid yelling “LALALALALALALALAL” or “I can’t hear you” when they know their argument is losing.

I don’t know what the answers are but asking questions might just be worthwhile.

All Sorts of Stuff

Things in the Middle East have been pretty nuts the past few weeks. The government of Tunisia was toppled. Egypt saw their dictator step down. That he is being replaced by the military is not suprising. The history of that sort of thing in the Middle East is pretty established. On a scale of best to worst case outcomes this is somewhere in the middle. Maybe there will be genuine free and fair elections and maybe they will be postponed indefinitely or less than free and fair. I am inclined to say that if substantial steps have not been made toward voting in a parliment/ representative body, changing the constitution, and such in 90 days they never will. A benevolent dictatorship by one guy or a council of sorts, or in this case the military is not the worst type of government to live under though certainly not the best either.

It is interesting that these sorts of events seem to happen in regional clumps. Sort of like the fall of Europe’s monarchies, the colonial dismantling of the late 50’s and early 60’s or the fall of the commies back in ’89. I think this happens for a lot of reasons. Economic downturns seem to be a significant factor in these things; almost without exception. I think the reason for this is that the stress economic downturns, and in poor countries spikes in food prices are involved is because they create unrest which the fundamentally unstable and unpopular government can’t handle. Sort of like how money problems frequently are a catalyst that leads to divorce in mariages that have other issues.

That reminds me of another thing. One of the wisest things I did while I was dating was to consider womens money habits. I started doing this after seeing a friend who married a very nice gal who is a money train wreck. It really caused a lot of friction and problems for them. The had some stupid high interest debt and just can’t seem to spend less than they make. It almost lead to divorce repeatedly.  Of course bad things can happen to good people but typically people who don’t have their financial house in order have other issues. Not if they make a ton or know all about investing or anything like that but just that they can live within whatever their means are, pay their bills and generally be financially functional. Marrying someone who can’t live within their means or has an entitlement ‘I deserve it’ attitude is just asking for life long problems.

I have been thinking a lot about housing recently. The first thing in my head is location, location, location. I got to thinking about all the different places I have lived and then balanced them against different scenarios. Personally the two options that interest me are living rurally or in a fairly small town. See old stuff about small town vs rural living here. The small town situation lets you walk or ride a bike to do much of your day to day stuff. Being able to walk to a store, restaurant, hardware store or small shop is nice. I particularly like the option of being able to have a couple beers and walk to get something to eat. This could be very convenient if fuel price or even availability get wonky. Living rurally on a fairly decent sized piece of land (I hesitate to define an exact size but certainly a couple acres) appeals to me also. It is definitely something we plan to do once we stop moving all the time. The reason we will wait until then is that going to the time and expense to get animals and equipment as well as set a place up how we want it isn’t worth it unless we plan to stay there for a long time.
One thing that people who advocate for living out in the sticks typically fail to understand, or see the full implications of is how fuel prices and their need for transportation make them vulnerable. The cold hard reality is that you need to work to earn an income. As they say the key to a successful rancher is a wife who works in town. Typically your job will be in town. The people who will buy what you produce live in town or scattered over some distance. Rural folks tend to drive a lot if for work, access to stores or entertainment. Working 30, 40 or even 50 miles from home is not abnormal for rural folks. Do the math on that and it adds up to crazy mileage. The percentage of income lower middle class (whatever the heck that means)  rural folks spend on fuel is rediculous and will only get worse. I am not a peak oil doomer but the days of dirt cheap fuel are gone and things are just going to get worse. There are a lot of variables in this one so an easy answer isn’t available. However you should think about your area, skills, interests and financial situation and try to come up with some answers for what you would do if fuel prices rose dramatically.
The whole concept of suburbs and other such places (like a small housing development outside of town or whatever) where people live closely but there aren’t stores, restaurants and all that stuff does not appeal to me at all. These are probably the worst of both options. If you can’t shoot a shotgun off the porch then you should be able to walk to the local grocery store and restaurants.

The nature of houses themselves is the next thing. This is a definite area where people back theirselves into a corner then gripe about it. They buy a home which is bigger than they need as well as fancier than they can afford. If they buy a house where the 30 year mortgage payment is absolutely as much as they can qualify for (and maybe actually pay) then it’s not a suprise they are paying for at least 30 years. Clearly it is all the bankers fault, not the knuckleheads who bought more house than they could actually afford.

I saw an ad for this company that does tiny houses. It is an interesting idea. Probably not good for a family of 6 but for a bachelor or a couple it could work just fine. A relative of mine lives in a 2 bedroom cabin that is about 20′ x 35′ and would be great for a couple or a family of 3-4. I think looking at a house as a place to live instead of a status symbol in your competition with the neighbors is a good start. If your family and or income change it is always possible to add a room or move.

Well it’s time for me to wrap this up now so I can go to bed.

Awesome And More True Than Most Will Admit

Sort of Like a Guy You Really Don’t Like Talking a Lot of Trash to Another Guy You Know Is Pro Cage Fighter

Iran offers to escort next “humanitarian” convoy.  Man I hope this happens. Iran seriously needs to get taken down a peg or two and there isn’t much nice a good black eye to do that.

Oh Ahmadinejad, He Is So Funny

He wants the UN to get Iran compensation for being invaded during WWII. He makes me laugh.

Book Review: The Next 100 Years A Forecast For the 21st Century

I stumbled into this book at the library and it just seemed interesting.I don’t know if this book is for everyone but if politics, foreign affairs, geography and history interest you and you’re willing to push through a few bland parts the book is interesting.

I got a couple of big things from this book. First and foremost history is not over. Nations are going to grow and shrink. There are going to be major wars which reshape our political maps. Lots of people thought that was the case in the pre WWI era and boy were they wrong.

Second of all and maybe the most interesting the book almost completely discounts China as a potential power. I certainly agree that their current growth is not possibly sustainable. Also the delicate balance of business on the coast making a ton of money and poor people in the inland areas is not going to work in the long term. China is certainly limited in its potential growth by significant geographic boundaries.

Third that this book talks of economics, military power, geography and war as they relate to and shape each other makes a lot of sense to me. I don’t think we can fully grasp one without looking at the others.

The outlook might be a bit fatalist speaking of events as though they were almost sure to happen. There was however a great point about the way that countries relate to each other and deal with various situations. Think about it like the beginning of a game of chess. Seemingly there are endless moves but for a good player there are far fewer viable moves as many of the given possible moves would lead to disaster.

Also there is a great point about how the changes in global birth rates are going to actually lead to a drop in the world population over the next 100 years. This will play out in all sorts of interesting ways, particularly as the boomers age and retire.

I got a lot out of the book and think for those of you who are interested in its content it would be a good read.

A Friends Take on Israeli US Relations and the Arab World

My friend says lots of stupid shit but this was IMO genius, enough so that I remember it distinctly years later.

My friend said more of less “Israel is like that yoked (very, very strong) little brother. You can’t say you like that he sometimes gets in fights and completely beats peoples asses but you really like it a lot.”

It is the simplest analogy on US Israeli relations and the rest of the world that I have ever heard.

Gaza, Who Really Cares?

I was talking with my only Muslim friend about the whole Israel/Gaza thing. She asked me who I support, and I had a realization. I really don’t care. At all. Honestly, if Israel was wiped off the face of the earth tomorrow, I would have the same reaction as if I found that every Palestinian was killed. Really don’t have a dog in this fight.
That said, Israel has a right to kick some ass, against anyone who they feel might possibly be a threat to them. So does every other country. People also have the right to rebel against their government. This includes people fighting against Israel. It happens.
I would prefer that Israel wins the day, but that is based on maintaining the balance of power in the Middle East. Morally, or ethically (which seems to be the only arguments being made) don’t matter to me. Both have a tendency to be assholes.
In short, let them fight it out… I really don’t care.

48 Hour Humanitarian Ceasefire, WHY WOULD THEY DO THAT?

If you haven’t been watching the news some international diplomats are “calling for a humanitarian ceasefire” in Gaza. Assholes are shooting rockets and Israelis finally got pissed and are cleaning a little house. Last I heard the rockets haven’t stopped.

Here is a lesson for Hamas that most ten year old kids have already learned. If you are punching a bigger kid in the shoulder and he asks you nicely to stop don’t ignore him. If you then choose to ignore his polite request and he starts punching you way harder then you punched him STOP PUNCHING HIM. He is probably not going to even consider stopping punching you until you stop and he gets a couple more in to make his point.

After you both cool down a little bit it would be a good time to bring up that you started punching him because you were hurt he did X to you. After that he might say I did X because you did Y but I will stop doing it. The younger kid might learn that if you fuck around with bigger, stronger, tougher kids it doesn’t end well.

After my last post on the Middle East the comment section on this might get interesting. I realize that the Middle East particularly Israel and the Palestinians is an incredibly complicated situation. All complications aside why the fuck would Israel stop retaliating to Palestinian aggression until that aggression stops?

Wonderful Things Going On In The Middle East

Israel and Hamas are back to fighting. Those Hamas assholes really had it coming. A key Israeli politician got onto the news a couple nights ago and said something to the effect of “We are stronger then you please don’t make us use it.” and those assholes kept shooting rockets. I realize this is a complex issue but IMHOP Hamas needs to loose power for anything productive to happen in the region.

Farther east the Talibans Power is growing near Kabul. Those assholes really need a good killing. It looks like we are sending about another 40,000 troops into the region.